Paid prediction market influencers spread baseless LA election fraud claims
Prediction markets are supposed to be about forecasting the future. But some influencers paid to promote those markets have instead been pushing unfounded conspiracy theories about an election happening right now.
They’re also doing it under the banner of their paid partnerships with betting markets that are accepting bets on the outcome.
At least one of those markets has asked its paid partners to remove some of those posts.
Prediction market partnerships
Like any company, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket use social media influencers to promote their products.
“They’re a business and they’re trying to market to customers,” Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University, told Straight Arrow.
The two leaders in the space have enlisted hundreds of social influencers to drum up business.
Polymarket has spent at least $2.5 million on some 800 influencers to help promote its website.
“We routinely collaborate with a diverse range of independent organizations, partners, and content creators spanning the political spectrum and constantly monitor, evaluate our progress, and make the necessary adjustments in order to achieve our core mission of providing the most accurate, transparent, and data-driven market insights to a global audience,” a Polymarket spokesperson told Politico.
Election posts
Several conservative influencers began posting conspiracy theories that the LA mayoral election was being stolen from Republican candidate Spencer Pratt with no proof of fraud.
That includes David Freeman, who posts under the name Gunther Eagleman.
He wrote a post baselessly accusing California of cheating in the LA mayoral race while quote-tweeting Kalshi’s odds on who will win that election.
Conservative influencer Matt Van Swol has also posted similar messages on tweets clearly marked as a paid partnership with Kalshi.
That includes this post from Kangmin Lee, who voiced his issues with mail-in ballots in a paid partnership post.
Reaction
Kalshi has since asked its paid partners to take those posts down.
Lee’s is still up, as is a post from right-wing influencer Benny Johnson, who has never had an issue pushing misinformation.
It appears others have removed some of those controversial posts. However, Eagleman has continuously posted unfounded conspiracy theories about the race in non-paid posts.
“We’ve asked these to be taken down, as they violate our affiliate marketing policies,” Dani Lever, a Kalshi spokesperson, told Semafor.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has not publicly commented on the issue.
Asking them to take down the posts is all the prediction market companies can really do, other than to stop partnering with certain influencers.
“We have this difference between being wrong and lying, right?” Hanson said. “You have to know you’re wrong to be lying, so that’s a different standard. So, we don’t usually prosecute people for having opinions about stocks and other assets just for being wrong.”
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, regulates prediction markets.
Hansen said it’s unlikely the governing body would take note of this.
“I presume there are regulations for false advertising or something, but this doesn’t sound like that,” he said.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
