Rotten tomato prices put a squeeze on summer meals
As Memorial Day weekend approaches and Americans prepare to fire up their grills, they’ll likely pay plumper prices in the produce aisle.
Food prices were up 3.2% in April from a year earlier, according to the Labor Department. But fresh produce rose much more: Consumers in U.S. cities paid 6.5% more for fresh fruits and vegetables, while tomato prices jumped nearly 40% in a single year.
This is rotten news for healthy summer meal planning — and for anyone who believes a burger without a tomato is a missed opportunity.
Tomato prices leave shoppers feeling crushed
Fresh tomatoes are a “harbinger of summer,” said William Alexander, tomato enthusiast and author of “The $64 Tomato: How One Man Nearly Lost His Sanity, Spent a Fortune, and Endured an Existential Crisis in the Quest for the Perfect Garden.”
“Whether it’s a slice on a burger, in a salad, or part of a BLT – the finest sandwich on the planet – there’s no substitute for it,” Alexander told Straight Arrow.
Most foods are sweet, tart or savory, Alexander said. A fresh tomato hits all three flavor notes, plus umami. For many Americans, that makes it an essential.
Summer means Fourth of July fireworks, ice cream, hamburgers and ripe tomatoes, he said. “We’ve been eating them in this country since before the United States was founded.”
Craig LeHoullier, author of “Epic Tomatoes” and known to his Instagram followers as NC Tomatoman, said Americans have “an insatiable demand for tomatoes” that is unlikely to die on the vine because of higher prices.
Whether eaten fresh, canned, alone or as part of ketchup, salsa or tomato sauce, in home cooking, fast food or fine dining, tomatoes are “an element of so many of the meals we eat,” he said.
LeHoullier speaks about tomatoes with something close to religious fervor.
“There’s a direct correlation between people’s personal happiness and mood and eating tomatoes,“ he said, citing conversations with epidemiologists and neurologists on his gardening podcast, as well as his own background in chemistry. He credits tomatoes’ unique chemical compounds and nutritional profile for their feel-good effects.
But for LeHoullier, the magic is not just eating them, but growing them.
“I have this thought that gardeners are going to have to save the world right now, because there’s so much anger and fighting and division, and gardening is a dome of sanity and tranquility,” he said. “It builds community.”
Why are produce prices ripening so fast?
Fresh produce prices are especially vulnerable to the kind of energy shocks triggered by the Iran war.
Most fruits and vegetables require refrigerated transportation, careful handling and more frequent deliveries than shelf-stable foods.
The U.S. also relies heavily on produce imports, which means added tariff pressures and, in many instances, longer, more complex transport. Nearly 60% of the fresh fruit and 35% of fresh vegetables consumed by Americans, excluding potatoes and mushrooms, are grown in other countries, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Meanwhile, tomatoes have been stewing in a particularly unfortunate mix of shocks.
Severe winter weather damaged crops in Florida, while weather and crop diseases reduced supplies from Mexico, which have carried a 17% tariff since last July.
Also, most tomatoes are grown under controlled environments, such as greenhouses, and require more energy to produce than other crops, said Miguel Gomez, a professor of food and agricultural economics at Cornell University.
“I would frame the current situation with tomatoes as a warning sign,” Gomez told Straight Arrow. “When you combine tariffs, energy shocks and climate‑related weather volatility, you can get very large price moves in specific produce items.”
Will Americans cut out fresh produce?
As fresh produce prices rise, some struggling Americans might reach for lower-cost, less healthy alternatives at the grocery store, experts said.
Others make swaps within the produce aisle.
“Many households will trade down within the category — for example, they will buy more carrots and cabbage, which are relatively low cost per pound, but fewer berries and avocados,” Gomez said. “They may also buy smaller quantities to avoid waste.”
But LeHoullier said tomatoes are still worth the splurge, particularly when they come from local growers in season.
This Memorial Day weekend, shoppers should “skip the potato chips, skimp on the beer, skimp on the wine, maybe make the hamburgers a little bit smaller, but buy those tomatoes,” he said. “Absorb the bite on it and be happy.”
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
