NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season
NOAA is predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, with forecasters calling for 8 to 14 named storms as El Niño is expected to suppress storm development across the basin.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. NOAA’s outlook, released Thursday, gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
Forecasters expect 8 to 14 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Of those, 3 to 6 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or stronger with winds of at least 111 mph.
An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
The agency said the season is expected to be below normal because El Niño is forecast to develop and strengthen during the hurricane season. El Niño often increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which can disrupt tropical storm and hurricane formation.
Other conditions could still support storm development. NOAA said Atlantic waters are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, while trade winds are likely to be weaker than average, both of which can favor a more active season.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
NOAA’s forecast follows a similar outlook from Colorado State University, which last month predicted 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, also citing the expected transition from La Niña to El Niño as a key factor.
CSU also projected below-average odds of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States and the Caribbean, though NOAA said its outlook is not a landfall forecast and does not predict where or when storms may affect land.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
