NHC monitors 2 areas for possible tropical development in Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas for possible tropical development off the coast of Africa, marking the first activity of the season in a region that produces many of the Atlantic’s long-lived hurricanes.
The system with the higher chance of development has not yet entered the Atlantic. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday and could gradually organize as it moves west across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The NHC gave the system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm through the next seven days. Development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Another tropical wave was located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moved west at 10 to 15 knots.
Some gradual development is possible during the early or middle part of next week, but upper-level winds are expected to become much less favorable as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles later in the week.
The NHC gave it a 20% chance of development through seven days and virtually no chance through Monday.
The tropical Atlantic between West Africa and the Caribbean becomes particularly important as hurricane season approaches its climatological peak in early September.
Tropical waves moving off Africa provide the initial disturbance for many Atlantic storms, and systems that organize near the Cabo Verde Islands have a long stretch of warm ocean over which they can strengthen before potentially approaching the Caribbean or North America.
The activity comes two days after NOAA maintained its forecast for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, largely because of a strengthening El Niño.
El Niño warms the equatorial Pacific and alters winds across the tropics, typically increasing vertical wind shear over the Atlantic.
NOAA now expects between seven and 13 named storms during the season, including two to six hurricanes and up to two major hurricanes. The forecast includes the two tropical storms that have already formed.
Forecasters gave the season a 75% chance of below-normal activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity and a 5% chance of above-normal activity. An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The 2026 season has so far produced Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, both of which formed in the Gulf.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
