Most US farmers can’t afford the fertilizer they need, survey finds
As many as 70% of American farmers cannot afford to buy all the fertilizer they need this year, reflecting the growing strain on the U.S. farm economy from the war with Iran, according to a new survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
The nation’s largest farm organization polled 5,700 farmers and ranchers nationwide from April 3 through April 11, as fertilizer and fuel prices surged because of the war.
As Straight Arrow News has reported, disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade typically passes, have driven the price of some fertilizers up by 40% in a matter of weeks.
Because fertilizer is traded as a global commodity, like oil, and the Gulf region produces much of the world’s supply, prices are highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks, even when it is also produced and sold here in the U.S.
The pain is not felt evenly
Farmers who pre-booked fertilizer before the Feb. 28 start of the Iran war locked in much lower prices than those who did not. And since the timing of the spring planting season varies widely by region and by crop, the pain has not been evenly felt.
Last month, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told reporters that about 75% to 80% of U.S. farmers had already booked their spring fertilizer needs before the conflict, while 20% to 25% had not yet locked in supplies.
The USDA has not published data backing Rollins’ estimate, and experts told SAN that they do not know how Rollins arrived at those figures.
When asked for comment last week about the fertilizer price shock, an agency spokesperson did not address the issue directly, writing to SAN, in part: “President Trump is the most pro-farmer President of our lifetime,” mentioning the administration’s tax reforms and farm relief programs.
The agency did not immediately respond to SAN’s request for comment about the Farm Bureau survey, which paints a slightly different, and more detailed, picture.
Midwestern farmers were the most likely to have locked in fertilizer before prices surged, with 67% saying they had pre-booked supplies. These states grow much of the nation’s corn, a crop central to the U.S. food system and heavily dependent on nitrogen-based fertilizers.
By contrast, just 19% of farmers in the South, 30% in the Northeast and 31% in the West pre-booked all their fertilizer needs before the war, according to the survey.
These farmers were more likely than those in the Midwest to say they could no longer afford all the fertilizer they need.
Smaller farms — many of which were operating on razor-thin margins or at a loss before the conflict — are taking the hardest hit across every region, the survey found. Those farmers were much less likely to have pre-booked fertilizer than larger operations.
The impact of the fertilizer price spikes also varies by crop.
Soybean, barley, corn and wheat growers were more likely to have pre-booked fertilizer, while cotton and peanut growers lagged behind.
More than 80% of American rice, cotton and peanut producers said they could not afford all the fertilizer they need this spring, underscoring how exposed some U.S. crop systems are to these shocks.
Almost all surveyed farmers said finances have worsened or stayed the same
Rising fertilizer and fuel costs have thrown farmers across the country into crisis.
Among those surveyed by the Farm Bureau, 94% said their financial situation has worsened or remained the same since last year, while only 6% reported improvement.
A late-March survey by the National Corn Growers Association also found mounting concern among U.S. corn farmers over fertilizer affordability and access, with many warning that the strain could extend into the 2027 planting season.
Will the farm shocks drive up US food prices?
Experts told SAN that it is too soon to tell how much these farm shocks will affect food prices, but there are signs that food inflation could worsen.
“Without the necessary fertilizers, we’ll face lower yields and some farmers will reduce acres altogether, which will impact food and feed supplies,” Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall said in a press statement.
“It’s too early to know how this will affect food availability and prices in the long run,” Duvall said, “but it’s a warning light that we’ve shared with leaders in Washington.”
Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
