March jobs report beats expectations, but labor shocks could still come
The U.S. labor market added a much better than expected 178,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million, changed little in March, another sign that the U.S. economy remains resilient even as the war in Iran has sent oil prices surging.
The US jobs market remains relatively strong
“The headline numbers for March in this report look pretty solid,” Oliver Allen, the senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told Straight Arrow News.
While the jobs numbers beat expectations, economists caution that this momentum is unlikely to last.
“March’s jobs report was very strong – a big monthly employment gain, a large decline in unemployment,” said Guy Berger, senior adviser of labor economics at the consulting firm Access/Macro.
“Much of this was snapback after February’s abysmal report, and it’s probably a good idea to average the two reports out,” he told SAN.
The February report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs.
An uneven economy
While Friday’s report eased fears of a sudden labor shock, the economy remains uneven.
“We have seen wages increase in some sectors despite low hiring and depressed quit rates,” Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG, told SAN.
Job gains occurred in health care, construction, and transportation and warehousing, while federal government employment continued to decline.
Economists warn of possible labor shocks to come
Friday’s hopeful jobs report does not account fully for the recent energy shocks and spillover effects sparked by the war in Iran, economists told SAN.
“High energy prices are going to sap the labor market’s strength,” Berger said.
Also, initial jobs numbers, released monthly by the Labor Department, are often revised downward in time, Allen said, and this has been especially true lately.
Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
