Kalshi penalizes 3 U.S. political candidates over trades on their own races
Prediction market company Kalshi said it has penalized three political candidates after finding they traded on the outcomes of their own elections, including a Virginia Senate candidate who was hit with a five-year suspension and a penalty of more than $6,000.
Kalshi said Wednesday that the cases involved candidates in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, Texas’s 21st Congressional District Republican primary and the Virginia Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. The company said all three were flagged by new safeguards designed to stop candidates from trading on markets tied to their own campaigns.
Under Kalshi’s exchange rules, a trader who can influence the outcome of an event contract is barred from trading in that market. “Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules,” the company said.
Two of the cases were resolved through settlements. In Minnesota, Kalshi identified the candidate as Matt Klein and said he accepted a five-year suspension and a $539.85 penalty after buying less than $100 in contracts tied to his own candidacy.
In Texas, Kalshi identified the candidate as Ezekiel Enriquez and said he also bought less than $100 in contracts tied to his own race. The company said Enriquez accepted a five-year suspension and a $784.20 penalty.
The largest penalty was imposed in Virginia. Kalshi said Mark Moran traded in two markets tied to his campaign, first in a market on who would run for public office and later in the market for the Democratic nomination for Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat after announcing his candidacy.
A disciplinary notice said Moran placed 10 orders on November 13 and 14, 2025, and two more trades on January 27, 2026. Kalshi said he later acknowledged the trades were improper but then stopped communicating with the company and refused to settle.
“However, Moran repeatedly refused to resolve this matter via settlement and stopped responding to further correspondence from the Compliance Department,” the disciplinary notice said.
Kalshi said that led to a five-year suspension and a $6,229.30 penalty, plus disgorgement of any profits tied to the trades.
Moran disputed Kalshi’s account and said he had placed about $100 on himself deliberately. “YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught…” he said in a statement posted on social media.
Moran said he wanted to test whether Kalshi would pursue him and to expose what he described as corruption in prediction markets. He also accused the company of trying to pressure him into making a public statement as part of a settlement.
“I traded $100 on myself, knowing this would happen,” Moran said, adding that he wanted to draw attention to Kalshi and would seek penalties against the company if elected.
Kalshi said none of the three cases were referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Justice Department, saying those referrals are reserved for more serious matters.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
