Tropical cyclone expected to form in Gulf this week
A tropical cyclone is expected to form in the Gulf around midweek, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). People along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the system, although its potential impacts are still uncertain.
The disturbance, known as Invest 92L, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf, according to the NHC’s 2 p.m. EDT outlook on Monday.
Forecasters give the system an 80% chance of development over the next seven days, including a 60% chance within 48 hours. Conditions are only marginally favorable, but gradual development is becoming more likely, with a tropical depression expected to form during the middle of the week.
The system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days before turning northward. Its eventual strength and specific impacts along the northern Gulf Coast are not yet clear.
“While it’s too soon to know the degree of impacts, those along the northern Gulf Coast should check back for updates,” NHC storm surge specialist Cassandra Mora said in a video update.
The National Weather Service (NWS) office in New Orleans also said it is too early to determine potential local impacts. “Now is a great time to check in on your plans and supplies though,” the agency said.
The Atlantic has produced eight named tropical storms this season, but none has reached the 74 mph sustained-wind threshold required to become a hurricane.
A strong El Niño has increased upper-level wind shear and dry air across the Atlantic’s main development regions, limiting storm development while boosting activity in the eastern Pacific.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
