US intel warns Putin could test NATO as weapons stocks shrink
New U.S. intelligence reports say Russian President Vladimir Putin could try a limited attack or hybrid operation against a NATO ally in the next few years, according to anonymous U.S. officials who described the reports to The Wall Street Journal.
The reports consider several possibilities, including cyber operations, armed groups sent to seize territory and a limited attack along NATO’s eastern edge.
U.S. officials told the Journal that such a move, if it happened, could be aimed at exposing divisions inside NATO.
The reports say the likelihood of a limited land incursion is low. Earlier U.S. assessments had concluded Putin would avoid provoking a NATO country while the war in Ukraine continued.
Why the assessment changed
The assessment changed earlier this year when Putin came under more pressure to show results from the war.
U.S. officials pointed to heavy Russian casualties and slowing battlefield gains. Ukrainian drone attacks have also damaged Russia’s military and oil industry.
The possible timeline in the intelligence reports runs from this fall to 2029.
What a test could look like
The reports describe threats ranging from cyberattacks and armed groups to a limited land incursion.
NATO’s Article 5 commits allies to collective defense if one member is attacked. But cyberattacks, unmarked armed groups and other hybrid threats can create murkier decisions for the alliance.
Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the Journal that NATO has long struggled with how to respond below the Article 5 threshold and that allies have generally preferred not to escalate. She said Russia has sought to challenge NATO’s credibility and separate the U.S. from its allies.
Recent warning signs
Straight Arrow reported on two recent incidents involving Russian weapons inside NATO territory.
Last week, a missile believed to have been fired by Russia landed in Poland during a larger attack on Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said “all indications” pointed to a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.
In May, a Russian drone crashed into an apartment building in Galati, Romania, injuring two people. Romania considered whether to request NATO Article 4 consultations after the incident, while NATO condemned what it called “Russia’s recklessness.”
The Journal reported that U.S. and European leaders increasingly view incidents involving Russian missiles in Poland and drones in Romania as signs Moscow is probing NATO.
The munitions problem
The intelligence warning comes as U.S. officials are already worried about strained weapons stockpiles.
Straight Arrow also reported last week that the war with Iran has drained U.S. missile inventories, especially Patriot and THAAD interceptors. CSIS estimated the U.S. has fewer than 827 Patriot interceptors from its most modern variants, down from roughly 2,300 before the war, and fewer than 278 THAAD interceptors, down from 452.
President Donald Trump has refuted reports of a shortage.
The Journal reported concerns involving Precision Strike Missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems and Stinger missiles. Officials also cited low stocks of Patriot, SM-3 and THAAD interceptors, along with THAAD radars and air defense artillery units.
Tom Karako of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Journal that Precision Strike Missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems and Stingers would be crucial in repelling a land invasion.
What the Pentagon says
Pentagon and White House officials rejected claims that the U.S. lacks the weapons it needs.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called reports of munitions shortages false and said the U.S. has “everything required to strike at the time and place of the President’s choosing.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the military has “more than enough” munitions to meet Trump’s strategic goals, while adding that the president has urged defense contractors to produce more.
NATO declined to discuss sensitive intelligence, but a spokesman said the alliance is preparing for multiple scenarios and is ready to deter and defend if needed.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
