Republicans gain a House seat – and could lose it again by November
While much of the attention this week has focused on California’s governor’s race and the Los Angeles mayoral contest, another election with national implications has already been decided.
Republicans gain a vote
Republican State Assemblyman James Gallagher won California’s 1st Congressional District special election, capturing about 62% of the vote against Democratic State Sen. Mike McGuire and Democrat Audrey Denney.
Because Gallagher received a majority of votes, there will not be a runoff in August.
Gallagher’s victory is a hold for Republicans as he will fill the remainder of Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s term. LaMalfa, who served in Congress since 2013, died in January, reducing the GOP majority in the House.
A tougher district awaits
Gallagher’s victory increases the Republican majority in the House to 218-212, with one independent member and four vacant seats still outstanding.
But Gallagher’s time in Washington could be short-lived. His district has been redrawn by California voters under Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting plan.
Gallagher won the special election under boundary lines that existed during the 2024 election. NBC News reported that fellow Republican LaMalfa won the district by 30 points while President Donald Trump carried the district over Kamala Harris by 25 points.
The new district, to be used in November, was drawn by California Democrats as part of a broader redistricting effort launched after Texas Republicans approved their own mid-decade map earlier this year.
Harris won the new district that Gallagher will now try to defend by 12 points in 2024.
Gallagher referenced redistricting on X while reacting to his special election victory.
“In November, we will be running in a new District, drawn not by an independent citizens commission, but in a backroom by my opponent Mike McGuire and other Sacramento politicians,” he wrote. “Voters are fed up with Gavin Newsom and his chief Lieutenant, Mike McGuire, whose policies have made California unaffordable and unsafe for too many families.”
McGuire, who will face Gallagher again in November under the newly redrawn district lines, also projected confidence after the loss.
“When good people come together, they can accomplish extraordinary things,” he wrote. “And today we’re on the road to take America back.
The Cook Political Report lists the new district as “solid D” heading into the key midterms.
The midterm math
With all 435 House seats on the ballot in November, Democrats need only a handful of net gains to reclaim control of the chamber.
Currently, the Cook Political Report lists 207 seats as solid or likely Republican and 193 as solid or likely Democratic. Twelve seats lean Democrat, five lean Republican, while just 18 are listed as toss-ups. That means control of the House will likely come down to a few dozen races out of 435 nationally.
California and Texas are not the only states reshaping congressional maps ahead of the midterms. At least 10 such states have implemented or are trying to impose new maps in time for the midterms, including Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, Virginia and Tennessee. Some of the so-called gerrymandering is tied up in court battles.
Round out your reading
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- Trump says the media isn’t covering one of his biggest accomplishments. We checked.
- Mike Lindell denied MyPillow was hacked. Its private data is now online.
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- We’re building a new Straight Arrow. Help us shape our future by taking our survey.
Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
