Trump’s push for war in Iran might go beyond its nuclear ambitions: Analysts
President Donald Trump has given Iran two weeks to agree to the U.S. nuclear deal or it will face the American military.
The White House has said that Iran’s nuclear arms program is the main reason Trump may send the U.S. into another war in the Middle East. However, the administration said that it destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities last year. So, why would the U.S. go to war over that?
A president declaring war on any country is usually an unpopular decision, but Americans are particularly uninterested in going to war with Iran. According to a January Quinnipiac poll, about 70% of respondents said they did not want the U.S. to enter a war with Iran if the government killed protesters. Even a majority of Republicans are against it.
Trump had threatened to declare war if the Iranian government shot and killed protesters demonstrating against the government. Reports on how many protesters the government killed are mixed, but they range from 3,000 to 33,000.
What’s the rationale for going to war with Iran?
While the Trump administration has said Iran’s nuclear capabilities are the reason it might declare war, analysts who spoke to CNN think it might be something else. When asked by reporters why the U.S. would need to attack Iran if it already destroyed it last year, press secretary Karoline Leavitt gave a vague response.
“Well, there’s many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran,” Leavitt said.
Some analysts believe Trump is using threats of war to coerce Iran’s leadership to the negotiating table to sign a nuclear deal that favors America. However, recent reports say talks have stalled, and the deal is in jeopardy.
According to CNN, Trump has been working hard to create a legacy by naming buildings after himself and planning a massive addition to the White House. But analysts told CNN that something that could really cement his legacy is taking down a foreign government that has been hostile towards the U.S. for decades.
Analysts also believe this would be the perfect time for the U.S. to strike. The regime has never been weaker, as Israel has destroyed most of Iran’s affiliated foreign groups, including Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel also decimated Iran’s military during several covert and visible attacks.
How could a war with Iran backfire?
Despite a good opening for the Trump administration to take, a war with Iran could lead to negative outcomes.
Neutering the Iranian leadership or decimating its military and paramilitary groups could lead to significant civilian casualties, since experts believe the U.S. would likely launch a multi-day air raid to avoid deploying ground troops. Most analysts don’t believe the U.S. would launch a large-scale ground assault like the one seen at the start of the Iraq War.
In January, the Trump administration carried out a controversial but widely successful raid and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. For Iran’s leadership, it’s unlikely this could happen, CNN reports.
However, it remains unclear what would happen if the U.S. were able to topple the current Iranian government. The U.S. has historically had trouble in the Middle East regarding extremists filling the power vacuum left after a regime change. After the fall of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, the lack of military forces allowed ISIS and other smaller extremist groups to form and take over most of the country and other lands.
In 2021, the Taliban, one of the U.S.’s biggest foes during the War on Terror, toppled the American-backed Afghan government in a matter of months. The Taliban brought about a strict Islamic government only a few weeks after U.S. troops left the country.
“Military operations designed to facilitate regime change frequently generate precisely the chaos they were intended to prevent,” Think Tanks Monitor writes in an analysis. “The destruction of institutional capacity, weaponry dispersal, and sectarian mobilization that characterize post-intervention environments prove far more destabilizing than the original autocratic order.”
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
