NWS predicted a busy hurricane season. So far, nature hasn’t delivered.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, warning of up to 19 named storms. But so far, those projections are off track.
The season has seen fewer storms than average and only one hurricane to date. However, with several months still left, the outlook could still change.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms — compared with the seasonal average of 14. Meteorologist Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said at the time six to 10 of those storms could develop into hurricanes. NOAA officials cited favorable atmospheric conditions and warmer waters as key factors to support their prediction of a busy hurricane season.
Slow start to season
So far, the Atlantic hurricane season has not lived up to such expectations. It’s been unusually quiet. Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which formed Wednesday, ended nearly a monthlong lull during the time of year when hurricane activity typically peaks. Only seven named storms have formed this year, with just one — Erin — reaching hurricane strength, and its center stayed well offshore. By comparison, an average season would already have three hurricanes by early September.
The first storm of the season, Tropical Storm Andrea, did not form until June 23, marking one of the slowest starts in two decades. By Sept. 9, six named storms had appeared, two fewer than the historical average for that date based on 1991–2020 data.
Meteorologists maintain prediction
Despite the slow start, forecasters warn that the season is far from over. NOAA’s midseason update in early August slightly lowered storm totals but maintained expectations for an above-average season, projecting five to nine hurricanes before Nov. 30.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, told The New York Times more than half a dozen additional named storms could still form this year.
NOAA lead forecaster Matt Rosencrans said Gabrielle may soon be followed by at least two more storms, noting that the peak of hurricane season is “backloaded,” with 60% of activity occurring after Sept. 10 on average.
Impacts from 2025 tropical storms
Even without an unusually high number of hurricanes, tropical storms this season have already caused significant damage.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Barry fueled deadly flooding in Texas over the Fourth of July holiday, and just two days later, Tropical Storm Chantal brought destructive flooding to parts of North Carolina.
Uncertainty ahead
While early predictions have yet to fully materialize, meteorologists caution that the worst of the season may still be to come. Recent years demonstrate the potential for intense late-season hurricanes. Last year, Hurricane Helene struck from Florida to western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee in late September, followed closely by Hurricane Milton hitting the Florida Peninsula in early October. Forecasters say similar late-season surges remain possible this year.
The post NWS predicted a busy hurricane season. So far, nature hasn’t delivered. appeared first on Straight Arrow News.
Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
