Mexican cartels are now terrorist orgs, what new tactics can the US employ?

• One of President Donald Trump’s executive orders labeled Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. According to experts, this will allow more funding and opportunities to fight such organizations.
• There are many ways to deal with cartels using technology, but infiltration also works, though that may put agents at risk.
• Cartels are much more fluid than traditional terrorist groups and more difficult to fully destroy.

Full Story

For years, Hollywood told and retold stories centered on the border between the United States and Mexico. Films like “Sicario,” “Sin Nombre” and “The Marksman” depicted the long-running tensions at the southern border with varying degrees of realism and accuracy.

Today’s headlines continue to highlight this decades-old issue. However, with a new administration in the White House, the potential for something unprecedented exists, like regular American troops targeting Mexican cartels.

Why are we talking about this now?

One of the many executive orders signed by President Donald Trump since retaking the Oval Office called for the State Department to label Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). The president was motivated by the rise in opioid and fentanyl-related deaths largely attributed to the cartels’ smuggling operations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled eight Mexican criminal organizations, including the Tren de Aragua gang and the Sinaloa Cartel, as FTOs after the department’s Bureau of Counterterrorism showed that the groups were engaging in terrorist activities. These activities are defined as premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational or clandestine groups.

However, the official recognition of the cartels as terrorist organizations did not mean a full-scale U.S. invasion to root out Mexican cartels was imminent.

What does adding these groups to the FTO list mean?

Jon Molik, an active-duty U.S. intelligence officer, emphasized the importance of the message behind targeting or labeling these cartels as FTOs.

“They are already targeted with significant law enforcement authority,” Molik said. “The Drug Enforcement Administration works very hard on the border and in other places to curb the drug smuggling from these cartels, and Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI do as well. There are already many laws dealing with what are traditionally called transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). There is an increase in financial investigative authority, allowing the seizure of real estate property and financial assets, and breaking financial transactions between U.S. citizens and those cartels. But it is more about messaging.”

How would the cartels be fought?

When asked about the potential for a kinetic fight with the cartels, Molik suggested it would likely involve special operations activity south of the border rather than conventional military forces.

“It would look a lot like what we do with foreign governments allied with the United States, training and equipping those already there,” he said. “The ultimate purpose of special operations forces, particularly the Green Berets, is to train other militaries.”

Eric Brown, a former Green Beret who spent more than 20 years with the Army’s Special Forces, echoed this sentiment, saying, “You do not want to solve a problem for another country. You want to give the resources and capabilities to that country for them to solve that problem.”

Brown noted that if the cartels were added to the U.S. State Department’s FTO list, new funds would become available to expand operations. This could mean more intelligence gathering, more training of local forces, and possibly some elite U.S. soldiers carrying out high-value missions. However, both Brown and Molik agreed that a full-scale fight between the cartels and conventional U.S. forces is unrealistic.

“I do not think they have close air support capabilities yet. They do not have F-35s, F-16s or C-130 Spectre gunships dropping bombs,” Brown said. “It would be more of a clandestine approach.”

What about using high-tech drones against these cartels?

When it came to using Reaper drones to take out drug factories, Molik said the effort might not be worth the cost.

“In terms of kinetic response, using platforms like the Reaper, which has that capability, is all about tactics,” Molik stated. “Conducting targeted strikes against drug labs operated by one cartel would likely be as effective as going after IED locations in Afghanistan. It would have an immediate impact, but then someone would build a new drug house elsewhere. The United States might not be interested in a whack-a-mole game with all these MQ-9s in their kinetic capacity. It costs a lot of money, and its effectiveness is questionable.”

Infiltrating the cartels and dismantling their operations to prevent reconstitution would be one way to deal with them. However, protecting the identities of Americans involved in these operations would be vital.

Unlike fighting the Taliban or ISIS, there is a real risk of retaliation from the cartels against soldiers’ families. These criminal organizations are well-funded and operate vast networks, so if a soldier’s identity is discovered, the cartels have the means to act on that information.

How are cartels different from other dangerous organizations?

Molik pointed out that such drastic actions by the cartels could put them in a more precarious position with the U.S. military.

“The cartels are different from other organizations we have dealt with worldwide,” Molik continued. “Other organizations aim to become nation-states and control land. The cartels, like gangs and organized crime in the United States, want to make money. They can only make money if nobody is paying attention to them. If they conducted a drastic operation, like killing innocents with RPGs across the border, they would potentially bring the full might of the United States against their operations, and they would no longer be able to make money.”

While labeling Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations places them in the same category as Hamas, ISIS and Boko Haram, it does not mean the U.S. will fight them the same way. It does mean the Trump administration is putting more scrutiny on these organizations and is willing to allocate additional resources to dismantle them.

Access the full Weapons and Warfare episode here.

Access all Weapons and Warfare podcast episodes here.