Israeli officials don’t see the Iranian regime falling soon: Report
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Friday the U.S. and Israel have struck more than 15,000 targets since the Iran war began and that the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader is “likely wounded.”
But countering Hegseth’s positive outlook on the war, Israeli officials and U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the Iranian government is not expected to collapse in the near term.
Why Israeli and US assessments don’t expect near-term collapse
The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday that Israeli officials now believe Iran’s rulers are likely to remain in power in the immediate future, despite suggestions from President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iranian citizens overthrow the regime.
The Journal reported that people familiar with Israeli assessments said Iran’s rulers remain in control and that the situation on the ground does not yet support a broad uprising.
Nearly two weeks into the war, the Journal reported that Iran’s political and military leadership still appeared capable of functioning and responding to events. It also reported that a heavy domestic security presence has discouraged open opposition and that Israeli officials believe it could take weeks or months of further fighting to change that balance.
Netanyahu said Thursday he was not sure Iranians would be able to topple the Islamic Republic, though he said Israel was working to create conditions that would allow it.
“I can’t tell you with certainty that the Iranian people will bring down the regime,” Netanyahu said. “If it doesn’t fall, it will be much weaker.”
The Israeli military laid out narrower goals, focused on degrading Iran’s military capability so the regime cannot pose as much of a threat. Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Nadav Shoshani said the military’s job is to minimize threats and push them away “for as long as possible,” adding that further steps are “beyond the IDF.”
U.S. intelligence agencies have also indicated the Iranian government is not at risk of collapse, Reuters reported. One source told Reuters that a “multitude” of intelligence reports show “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” and it retains “control of the Iranian public.” However, the situation is described as fluid and subject to change.
Separately, CBS News reported that Middle East analyst Danny Citrinowicz said the possibility for regime change is “very slim,” especially without ground troops, and he warned Iran could become more determined to pursue nuclear weapons. Citrinowicz also said he would not consider the outcome a U.S. victory if the war ended immediately because, in his view, the regime is not going to “capitulate.”
Security pressure and shipping disruption
The Iranian government has continued retaliatory strikes, including attacks affecting shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and strikes that have hit targets in Gulf countries.
The Hill reported figures from hormuzstraitmonitor.com showing 240 vessels waiting to pass through the strait. Only eight ships had passed through the strait in the prior 24 hours, with four others in transit.
Dubai residents described missile warnings and intercepts, and Gulf countries, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, continued to face attacks.
Iranian state media published a statement Thursday that it attributed to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — his first since replacing his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — vowing revenge, ordering forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatening to open new fronts.
Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
