Decades of earthquake innovations have California as ‘Big One’ ready as possible
California has been hit with nearly 100 earthquakes over the last month, especially in the San Ramon area near Oakland. That’s got some wondering if the “big one” is near and how prepared the state is for a major quake.
Earthquake swarms
Since Nov. 9, there have been at least 80 earthquakes of magnitude 2.0 or greater in the San Ramon area. That number of smaller quakes is referred to as a swarm.
“It’s just a period of heightened activity that happens,” Christine Goulet, director of the Earthquake Science Center for the U.S. Geological Survey, told Straight Arrow News. “And of course, it gets people worried that, ‘well, is there a big one coming.’”
While the swarms may trigger that question, they don’t necessarily forecast larger seismic activity.
“Swarms tend to happen at various times, and they are rarely announcing something bigger, but they can,” Goulet said.
The big one
If you haven’t spent time on the West Coast, you may not be familiar with the concerns over the “big one.” In essence, it refers to the potential for a massive earthquake along the fault line that runs up and down the Pacific coast.
The cost in lives and property could be enormous, with the potential to flatten cities, trigger massive tsunamis and more. Those major quakes occur roughly every 300 years, according to the Red Cross.
As Californians await the big one, the Golden State is no stranger to major quakes.
Some of the more famous ones in recent memory include the 6.9 magnitude Loma Prieta quake in 1989, which was broadcast live because it happened during a World Series game in San Francisco.
Then there was the 1994 Northridge earthquake in SoCal, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake which killed dozens and caused up to $20 billion in damage.
“Some of the biggest impacts we saw from them were collapsed bridges, famously, the Cypress structure collapsing in Oakland,” Jonathan Stewart, professor of civil and environmental engineering at UCLA, told SAN. “And then in the Northridge earthquake, we had a number of freeways and freeway interchanges that collapsed, and those accounted for a lot of the fatalities in both of those earthquakes.”
Preparing buildings for the big one
There’s a popular saying in the seismic industry that “earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do.”
Experts SAN spoke with said that major earthquakes of the past have helped get the state ready for the “big one.”
“I think we’re significantly better prepared now than we were then,” Stewart said.
The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) focuses on the preparedness of residential properties.
“We are making strides in being prepared, but we certainly could be more prepared,” Ben Deci, senior media officer for the CEA, told SAN.
Deci pointed to two main ways residents are attempting to protect themselves from a major quake.
The first of which is insurance.
“There are approaching a million people in our state who are choosing to make that commitment to protect to their nest egg in case an earthquake strikes, and get the insurance that will help them recover, help them rebuild after something of a catastrophic nature happens, and that’s great, but it could and should be higher,” Deci said.
Earthquake insurance is not mandatory for homeowners in the state.
“Earthquake insurance is discretionary,” Deci said. “And these little swarms sometimes remind people that we do live in earthquake country.”
Deci said the other way people can protect themselves from a major quake is through mitigation.
“Mitigation, in terms of earthquakes, is preparing, especially certain houses, older houses, houses built before the 1980s, houses with certain construction styles,” Deci said.
The state continues to upgrade its building codes to make buildings more prepared for major shaking.
“When we put up new buildings, they’re designed according to the building code at the time,” Stewart said. “The buildings are designed and approved by the jurisdiction, and the building code does ensure life safety. Basically, that just means that if the design level earthquake shaking occurs, the building should not collapse, which is kind of a minimum standard.”
Since 2013, California has also offered grants to help retrofit older homes that are not as equipped to handle a larger earthquake.
“If they’re built before 1978, they have these known vulnerabilities, and so we’ve started to retrofit those at an increasing rate,” Stewart said.
The Brace and Bolt program has helped people prepare their homes in case of the “big one.” Contractors will go underneath the home and literally bolt the home to the foundation.
“What we see is these homes will actually be shaken off their foundation, and that can be catastrophic,” Deci said.
When it comes to legislators, Deci said reducing any tax burdens will go a long way in helping people.
“Sometimes there can be tax implications, and this gets a little sort of in the weeds and confusing, but I will say that we are strongly in favor of reducing or eliminating taxes on mitigation grants and on mitigation efforts that would happen beforehand,” Deci said. “We just think they’re so important and they result in such a common benefit for all Californians that making those kinds of grants, those kinds of efforts, tax free is a smart and beneficial move.”
Preparing people for the big one
While making sure buildings stay standing is critical, experts said making sure people are prepared is just as important.
Every October since 2008, Californians have taken part in the Great Shakeout. That’s an emergency preparedness drill to teach people what to do when the Earth starts to move beneath them.
“Following that, especially the city of LA, they did a major study, and a lot of scientists worked on, what would we do if there was a major earthquake?” Goulet said. “And this triggered a lot of different changes in how and in planning for emergency response.”
That preparedness doesn’t just include preparing buildings and people, but also what happens in the aftermath of a quake.
“Loss of electricity is common, loss of gas, more fires, water access will likely be limited after a large earthquake, and all those different things is what constitutes the earthquake preparedness,” Goulet said.
Earthquakes are not like hurricanes. You can’t see them coming from hundreds of miles away with days to prepare.
However, beginning in 2019, the ShakeAlert early warning system rolled out.
“What this does is it detects really, really rapidly, the first waves that come from the crust breaking in the ground, and it detects that rapidly and then sends alerts to people,” Goulet said.
It’s now active in California, Oregon and Washington, and it gives people a few seconds of warning before major shaking occurs. A few seconds may not sound like a lot, but it can be critical.
“For people, we recommend drop, cover and hold on,” Goulet said. “Go under a sturdy object and protect yourself. And hold on, say, to a sturdy table and wait until the shaking ends.”
Deci echoed those sentiments.
“Drop, cover, hold on,” Deci said. “We always repeat that when we can. People ought to know what to do when the ground starts shaking, because it will.”
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
