China and Russia are pushing into the Arctic. Will NATO shift focus too?

• Russia and China have been pushing their military capabilities in the Arctic zone, including a recent large-scale exercise. It included nearly 100,000 troops and over 400 warships and submarines.
• The addition of Sweden into NATO has brought new capabilities into the fray.
• With Russia and China focusing on the Arctic, should the U.S. and its allies focus on the northern region, too?

Full Story

When considering the activities of the Chinese and Russian militaries, an analyst’s initial reaction might be to focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s consistent boundary pushing in the Indo-Pacific. While this is understandable, limiting the view of these conflicts to just these areas can be a mistake.

Both countries have increasingly aimed to develop a presence in the Arctic. This deepening collaboration between the world’s second- and third-largest militaries has captured the full attention of those responsible for defending North America’s northern frontier.

Russia and China flex their Arctic muscle

In mid-September 2024, Russia and China launched “Ocean-24,” a large-scale naval and air exercise that spanned the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. The exercise involved over 400 warships, submarines and support vessels, along with more than 120 aircraft and 90,000 troops.

Around the same time, NORAD tracked four Russian military aircraft entering Alaska’s air defense identification zone.

Maj. Gen. Chris McKenna, the Canadian NORAD region commander, discussed this violation during a panel at this year’s AFA Warfare Symposium called “Northern Tier Defense.” The panel addressed the looming threat of Russian and Chinese incursions in the Arctic.

“This summer, we had the Alaska region and myself countering the combined bomber patrol with the Chinese and the Russians, to take a run at the air defense identification zone for Alaska and Canada,” McKenna said. “The U.S. was shoulder to shoulder in that deterrent moment, and we were in position for that deterrent moment.”

McKenna emphasized that Arctic security is economic security, not just for Canada and the U.S., but for Euro-Atlantic partners as well.

“These are the threats, and this is the context that I sort of live and fight in,” he added.

In 2018, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” as part of a strategy to gain regional influence. This title is self-proclaimed and not officially recognized by Arctic nations or international bodies. Nonetheless, China’s northward push appears to be part of a broader strategy to assert dominance at the top of the world.

Sweden in NATO

Maj. Gen. Jonas Wikman, chief of staff of the Swedish Air Force, expressed concerns about the urgency of speeding up the pace and investing in capabilities to operate in the Arctic as allies and partners.

“The assessment part and the operational part are, to me, the most important right now for us,” he said.

Wikman highlighted the importance of Sweden’s inclusion in NATO for defending northern regions from Russian and Chinese incursions.

“We also add geography when it comes to early warning capabilities,” he explained. “We cover from 55 to 69 degrees north, which is a wide area for early warning. We have air bases and a spaceport north of the polar circle, and we know how to operate that.”

The diversity of defenses from the northern Pacific to the northern Atlantic potentially gives the U.S. and its allies an edge in the Arctic. Russia and China generally operate from a single system, but they will have to deal with far more than that.

Diversifying technology in the Arctic

Scott Gilloon, senior director of mission architecture at General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, noted the advantage of having multiple systems.

“Imagine an adversary having to approach it from, ‘Hey, what does Saab’s system do?’ They have to approach it from all of us,” Gilloon said. “That is very powerful, not only in terms of generating and processing information but also in attacking the problem.”

A shifting focus?

The Arctic has not been a significant focus for U.S. defense spending in the past, likely because most countries with claims in the region were U.S. allies, except for Russia. China only started developing its Arctic strategy in the last six years.

While global politics in the Arctic are shifting, especially as climate change makes the waters easier to navigate, the perception that the U.S. is falling behind in Arctic policy could soon change. NATO continues to strengthen its defense plans in the region.

Access the full Weapons and Warfare episode here.

Access all Weapons and Warfare podcast episodes here.