After a decades-long population boom, Atlanta’s growth is slowing down
Quinn Arnau was thoughtful in his decision to plant his roots in the Atlanta metro area 20 years ago. He sought a space with an up-and-coming airport, major corporations’ headquarters and room to breathe.
“I feel like Atlanta is a cool place to live,” Arnau, president of the Atlanta Realtors Association, told Straight Arrow News. “It’s seen as an alternative to some of the larger cities like Chicago, Los Angeles and New York.”
He isn’t the only one who feels this way. Atlanta has grown steadily for the past two decades. But as that sought-after available space becomes harder to find, the boomtown’s growth is slowing.
Between 1990 and 2025, Atlanta’s population grew an average of 2.2% every five years, according to an SAN analysis of data from the Atlanta Regional Commission, a regional planning organization that tracks trends for the city and surrounding counties. The city’s most rapid growth occurred from 2015 to 2020, during which the number of residents increased by 15.5%, or 67,015 people. The city is no stranger to population losses, as its worst was by 4.84% from 2000 to 2005, when it lost 20,163 residents.
Ann Carpenter, head of research and analytics at the commission, told SAN her team reviews results of the decennial census and then uses information about new homes being built to calculate a weighted population change.
On an annual basis, the growth looks more incremental. Data from the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates showed that Atlanta’s growth slowed from 1.5% between 2021 and 2022 to 1.3% from 2023 to 2024.
John Floresta, chief strategy and accountability officer at the Cobb County School District, which serves 100,000-plus students in the Atlanta metro, told SAN that he believes the stalled national birth rate is the cause. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the national rate has been falling since 2007 with a small spike in 2021.
“Over the course of the last five years or so, we have seen a stable birth rate across the county,” he said.
Georgia’s birth rate of 11.3 births per 1,000 people was slightly higher than the national average of 10.7 in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Data for 2024 hasn’t yet been finalized.
Yet even as the birth rate has held steady, school enrollment has decreased in Cobb County. The number of incoming kindergarteners has dropped from 7,720 students six years ago to 6,803 as of March 6, according to Georgia Department of Education enrollment data.
Despite it, people have relocated from the city’s confines to the suburbs where they can access more land for as much, sometimes less, than what they pay in Atlanta. The movement hit cities across the nation for decades. This urban flight proliferated during the COVID-19 pandemic, as places like Atlanta accepted more multifamily developments to accommodate a rising population, pushing single-family homes to the suburbs.
What’s led to the growth?
Lloyd Potter, professor of sociology and demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio, told SAN that cities often see more people move in when a transportation system is built. That happened in places like Knoxville, Tennessee, Dallas and Houston.
Atlanta is no stranger to that phenomenon. After the city expanded its former municipal airport to include international flights in the 1970s and 1980s, Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport became the world’s busiest airport.
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Atlanta has long been known as a hot city in which to live. Yearly data shows that growth has slowed, while the suburbs expand.
“Once Hartsfield airport went in there, I mean, the population just really started taking off pretty dramatically,” Potter told SAN, “because businesses were moving there, and they could move freight, and then people could come in and out fairly easily.”
Atlanta followed a relatively steady growth after the 1990s, mimicking the expansion of major companies like Delta Air Lines, UPS, Coca-Cola Company and Equifax. The region became a great place to work: The Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell region had an unemployment rate of 4.9% in 1990 and 3.4% in 2024, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Since 1990, the region has added a net of 45,827 employees. The largest addition was in 2021 when 146,300 people joined the region’s workforce — a rebound after the area saw 142,000 people lose their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Still, the promise of good jobs helps keep the region humming. At Cobb County schools, Floresta said the district has worked with several businesses to embed staff at Career Innovation and Technology Academy, a magnet high school that focuses on providing students hands-on learning experiences and career opportunities. Through the academy, Floresta said students graduate trained in their industries and could be hired quicker than others.
“Employers are confident that they’re hiring a skilled employee when a graduate walks in their door,” he said.
He added families are noticing the options suburban school districts like Cobb County offer and are either moving to those counties or sending their kids to the districts.
Suburbs enjoy the constraints of Atlanta
Floresta, like Arnau, moved to the Atlanta area nearly 25 years ago. He chose a home in Cobb County, which was growing slowly, starting in the parts neighboring Atlanta.
Soon enough, that development extended up to the city of Marietta, then to the town of East Cobb, over to the city of Kennesaw and down the county’s western side.
That’s evident in the sprawl of building permits the Atlanta Regional Commission has tracked. Its map revealed that single-family housing building permits in 2024 clustered in Forsyth, Gwinnett, Hall and Jackson counties.
Those new homes are likely being filled with younger families, Arnau said.
According to the commission’s yearly population report, the Atlanta Metro’s population grew by 26.3% from 1970 to 1980 and by 34.9% from 1980 to 1990. Gwinnett County experienced the largest jump, exploding from 72,349 residents in 1970 to just over 1 million as of this year.
The commission uses an 11-county region in the population estimates over the Census Bureau’s 29-county metro.
Arnau has noticed a trend of younger people moving out of the city of Atlanta to take advantage of the space a home in the suburbs can offer for their budgets.
“We have a lot of people looking for a large flat backyard,” Arnau said, “and I’m not sure how Atlanta is perceived from the outside, but once you get especially north of the city, there are creeks and rivers and hills and things everywhere.”
The lack of open space in Atlanta has, however, made way for multifamily buildings such as apartments, condominiums and townhomes. The city has approved nearly nine times more multifamily permits than it did for single-family homes in 2024, according to the Atlanta Regional Commission.
It’s the only area in the region with such a large discrepancy between the housing types.
“Some of those rentals are coming at the expense of would-be development for single-family homes,” Arnau said.
Throughout the region, home sales aren’t closing as quickly as they once did, Arnau told SAN. As a result, Arnau deems the area part of a “neutral” real estate market, which means neither buyers nor sellers have an advantage. This has allowed homeowners to stay put for longer as their homes build equity.
And that, in turn, promotes smaller towns to build their own downtown or city center areas to entice people to stay, Arnau said. That’s happened in Alpharetta, where in 2015, leaders created a downtown master plan to address Fulton County’s 365,000-resident increase between 1970 and 2015.
It resulted in a neighborhood boasting more than 50 restaurants, shops and hotels.
Growth in Atlanta hasn’t stopped. It’s only slowed after years of explosive growth that has become the expectation: People are still moving in and calling it home.
“The future is bright,” Arnau said. “Atlanta will continue to keep growing and we’ll see people continue to want to live here.”
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