Study suggests Gen Z’s youngest voters favor Republicans

• A Yale poll shows a generational divide within Gen Z, with voters aged 18 to 21 leaning Republican by 11.7 points, while those aged 22 to 29 favor Democrats by 6 points. Despite this shift, most political figures remain unpopular among voters under 30.
• Cultural and policy divides are evident, with younger voters supporting immigration policies and opposing deportations at higher rates than the general public.
• While some attribute the Republican lean to economic frustration and culture war fatigue, other polls show mixed trends, including declining favorability for Trump among young men.

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Young voters may be shifting the political landscape. A new poll from Yale University shows Americans aged 18 to 21 are now leaning more Republican. However, another survey shows a different story.

The Yale Youth Poll revealed a generational divide within Generation Z. While voters aged 22 to 29 still favor Democrats by a 6-point margin, younger Gen Z voters now show an 11.7-point preference toward Republicans.

The poll surveyed 4,100 registered voters from April 1-3, with 2,025 of the voters aged 18-29, to compare young voters to the electorate as a whole.

Favorability ratings remain low

Despite the Republican shift, most political figures remain unpopular among voters under 30.

President Donald Trump received a net favorability rating of -17.9. Republican Vice President JD Vance scored even lower at -30, while Elon Musk came in at -34.7.

On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris landed at -1, while former President Joe Biden held a net favorability of -19.5.

However, when looking specifically at the 2028 primary, Vance led the Republican field with a +65 rating among GOP voters. Among Democrats, Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were tied with Democratic voters at +60.

Cultural and policy divides widen

The Republican shift among young voters isn’t limited to candidate preference. The Yale Youth Poll also found major divides on cultural and policy issues.

On immigration, most voters opposed allowing those who entered the country illegally to stay in the U.S. as asylum seekers by a slim 2-point margin. However, young voters supported allowing them to remain by a margin of 25 points.

The study also asked about international students protesting the war in Gaza. While the general public opposed deporting them by 36 points, young voters opposed it by 65 points.

What’s behind the young voters’ Republican shift?

The Yale poll did not explore what is driving this political shift. However, several factors may be influencing Gen Z’s conservative lean.

A combination of economic frustration, culture war fatigue and the growing influence of conservative voices on social media could play a role. Others believe young voters are reacting to perceived inaction from Democrats on key issues like climate change, student loans and foreign policy.

Separate poll reveals drop in Trump’s young men approval

Not all recent polling supports the idea of a sweeping Republican shift among young voters. A new YouGov/Economist poll surveyed 1,741 registered voters from April 5-8. It shows President Trump losing ground with young men, a group that has historically leaned more conservative.

According to the poll, Trump’s net favorability among voters aged 18 to 29 has dropped 34 points since the start of his second term, falling from +5 to -29. Among young male registered voters, his net approval has declined by 29 points.

Either way, this Republican shift with young voters could have major implications. While Gen Z helped power Democratic wins in 2020 and 2022, they could swing the other way in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election.