Tropical depression in Gulf forecast to become hurricane
Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to become the Atlantic season’s first hurricane and reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as a dangerous storm, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The system would be named Isaias when it strengthens into a tropical storm.
The depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph at 4 p.m. CT Tuesday and was about 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the NHC. It was moving east at 5 mph, according to the hurricane center’s first advisory.
Forecasters expect it to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane Thursday. The system is expected to pass north of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday before turning northeast and approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Conditions appear generally favorable for strengthening over the next few days. The hurricane center said the cyclone’s compact size could help it strengthen steadily, and some reliable forecast models show a stronger storm than the official forecast.
The system will likely reach its peak strength before arriving at the coast. Increasing vertical wind shear could cause some weakening as it approaches land.
“But it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall,” the hurricane center said.
The storm is also expected to grow significantly in size as it reaches the northern Gulf Coast, particularly on its eastern side. Forecasters cautioned people against focusing on individual points along the forecast track because of uncertainty and the storm’s expected growth.
National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Donald Jones in Lake Charles, Louisiana, said preliminary estimates pointed to a possible landfall along coastal southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama. An official hurricane center forecast track was not yet available when he spoke.
The forecast follows a record delay in the Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season in the satellite era. Eight named tropical storms have formed this year, but none has reached the 74 mph sustained-wind threshold required to become a hurricane.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
