Tropical depression could form in Gulf later next week
A tropical depression could form in the Gulf of America late in the week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Forecasters give the potential system a 40% chance of development over the next seven days.
In its 2 p.m. EDT outlook Sunday, the NHC said an area of low pressure is likely to form around midweek over the southwestern Gulf. The system is expected to drift northward.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally favorable, but slow development is possible. The chance of formation within the next 48 hours is near zero.
The National Weather Service (NWS) office in New Orleans said the outlook does not yet establish whether the system will affect the area.
“It’s still too early to know what, if any, local impacts could occur,” the office said. “Continue to monitor the forecast for updates.”
The Atlantic has produced eight named tropical storms this season, but none has reached the 74 mph sustained-wind threshold required to become a hurricane.
October 4 marks the latest the Atlantic basin has gone without its first hurricane in a calendar year since satellite tracking began in the 1960s. The previous record was September 11, set in both 2002 and 2013.
Only two complete seasons in reliable Atlantic records, 1907 and 1914, ended without a hurricane.
A strong El Niño has increased upper-level wind shear and dry air across the Atlantic’s main development regions, limiting storm development while boosting activity in the eastern Pacific.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
