Analysts uncovered North Korea’s largest nuclear expansion yet
North Korea may be on the verge of a major jump in nuclear fuel production.
A Vertic analysis says a new uranium-enrichment facility at Yongbyon could expand North Korea’s enrichment capacity by 75% once it reaches full production.
Vertic estimates the site could hold more than 9,000 centrifuges and produce about 160 kilograms of highly enriched uranium each year.
That would add to North Korea’s existing estimated annual production of 215 kilograms.
The Wall Street Journal reports the facility will be North Korea’s largest publicly known uranium-enrichment site once complete.
Why the expansion matters for North Korea’s arsenal
Grant Christopher, a Vertic analyst and co-author of the report, told the Journal that North Korea “probably has all the material they’d need for a medium-sized nuclear arsenal already.”
“And now it looks like they’re running up the numbers,” Christopher said. “We don’t see any evidence they’re going to stop any time soon.”
Christopher estimated North Korea’s total stockpile of highly enriched uranium at about 2,100 kilograms. That would be roughly one-tenth the size of the military reserves held by the U.K. or France.
What analysts and North Korean state media said
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute now estimates North Korea has about 60 nuclear warheads and enough fissile material to build at least 90 more. The estimate is up from about 50 warheads in 2025.
Kim pledged to pursue “larger plans” for the country’s nuclear program and praised scientists for more than doubling North Korea’s “weapons-grade nuclear material production” capacity, according to the Journal.
“This nuclear potential that we have now,” Kim said, “is inconceivable.”
How analysts counted the machinery
A separate Vertic report shows how analysts arrived at those estimates without getting inside North Korea.
They compared state media photos of Kim’s visits with satellite images of the enrichment halls, then used 3D modeling to map the rows of centrifuges. Analysts also studied repeating light reflections on the machines to help count how many centrifuges sat in each column.
From there, Vertic estimated that several known halls at Kangson and Yongbyon use a similar layout, with rows of centrifuges working together as connected enrichment units.
The method pointed to about 10,500 working centrifuges across Kangson’s main hall and three Yongbyon halls. It also showed newer buildings appear more tightly packed, suggesting North Korea is learning how to squeeze more production into the same space.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
