Trump says Iran is finished, but US intel says it still has bite
President Donald Trump claims the U.S. destroyed Iran’s navy, air force, and technology, but classified intelligence assessments show Tehran still has substantial missile power and maintains access to most of its underground facilities.
In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump called it “virtual TREASON” for news outlets to report that Iran is doing well militarily. He said Iran had 159 ships in its navy and that “every single ship is now resting at the bottom of the sea.”
The New York Times reported that Iran has regained control of 30 out of its 33 missile installations bordering the Strait of Hormuz. The Washington Post cited a private CIA analysis suggesting Tehran has enough resources to withstand the U.S. blockade for roughly 90 to 120 days before its economy hits a critical breaking point.
Why Iran’s remaining military capacity still matters
The remaining missile capacity matters because it could affect U.S. decisions on whether to resume large-scale strikes, continue the blockade or negotiate an end to the conflict.
Iran still has roughly 70% of its mobile launchers and missile arsenal that it held before the war began, according to The Times. The Post reported a similar assessment, putting Iran’s remaining mobile launchers at about 75% and its missile stockpile at about 70% of prewar levels.
Those weapons matter most around the Strait of Hormuz, where oil shipping and U.S. naval operations remain central to the conflict. The Times noted that because Iran can once again use launch sites along the coast, U.S. naval vessels and commercial tankers could face direct threats.
What the intelligence and officials say
Satellite and surveillance data led intelligence agencies to conclude that Tehran has re-entered roughly 90% of the subterranean bunkers and launch sites it operates across the country. Those facilities are now assessed as “partially or fully operational,” according to people familiar with the assessments cited by the Times.
The CIA found that Iran has unsealed almost all of its buried bunkers, fixed broken hardware and even finished building missiles that were still on the assembly line when the war started, according to the Post.
Administration officials have pushed back on reporting that emphasizes Iran’s remaining military capacity. White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales told The Times that Iran’s military had been “crushed” and said anyone who thinks Iran has reconstituted its military is “either delusional or a mouthpiece” for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Joel Valdez, the acting Pentagon press secretary, told the Times that coverage portraying Operation Epic Fury as anything other than a historic accomplishment was “disgraceful.”
A senior U.S. intelligence official told The Post that the blockade inflicts “real, compounding damage” and that U.S. forces have destroyed Iran’s navy. Separately, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine told a House appropriations subcommittee Tuesday that the military holds “sufficient munitions” for its current operations.
How the conflict is straining US resources
The conflict is also straining U.S. resources at home. ABC News reported that the Army is facing a sudden budget shortfall of about $4 billion to $6 billion and is cutting training costs across parts of the force.
A U.S. official told ABC that major drivers include the war in Iran, the southern U.S. border mission and a $1.1 billion National Guard deployment in Washington, D.C. The Army is reportedly slashing costs by canceling specific courses, limiting the time pilots spend in the air and increasing oversight of how individual units conduct training.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
