How many times has Trump changed his mind about additional Iran strikes?
It only took two times before the townsfolk stopped believing the boy who cried wolf — by the third time, it was too late. But the White House is now on its fourth threat leveraged against Iran, demanding it open the Strait of Hormuz, but some analysts, much like the townsfolk, say those threats may be losing their edge.
On Monday, President Donald Trump reiterated that those threats will materialize by Tuesday night if Iran doesn’t give in to his demands.
“We have a plan, because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o’clock tomorrow night,” Trump said at a news conference, “where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again.”
White House officials who spoke to Axios say there is still a chance that Trump extends the deadline a fifth time, especially if he sees a deal emerging.
“If the president sees a deal is coming together, he’ll probably hold off,” the senior administration official told Axios. “But only he and he alone makes that decision.”
However, the official said they were “skeptical” that Trump would extend the deadline this time.
How many times has the US extended deadlines?
Since the conflict began in late February, the president has gone back on threats he made against Iran at least four times.
The first deadline was on March 21, when Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “without threat” or the U.S. would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power grid. Iran said that it would retaliate by fully shutting down the Strait if the U.S. carried out its strikes.
Two days after Trump set his first deadline, he announced he would extend it after “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. However, Iran denied that those talks ever took place. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that “no negotiations have been held with the US,” in a post on X.
“Fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” he wrote in his post.
Oil markets did, in fact, enjoy Trump’s announcement, with prices dropping more than 10%, according to CNBC. However, Trump’s words seemed to lose their weight the next time this happened.
How do the markets react to Trump?
On March 26, Trump again delayed increased U.S. strikes for an additional 10 days on a Truth Social post. In his post, he said Iran had requested the extension, but Iran never confirmed.
But the delay didn’t have the same effect on the oil market this time around. Crude oil prices dipped immediately after his announcement but ended the day higher than they were. Analysts that CNBC spoke to said markets like predictability and have found that Trump doesn’t always mean what he says.
“Trump’s escalatory tone is very much in line with his playbook: headline-driven, unpredictable, and designed to apply maximum pressure quickly,” Mohit Mirpuri, an equity fund manager at SGMC Capital, told CNBC. “Markets will need to get used to this style of policymaking for the foreseeable future while he’s in office.”
Trump made several other threats following his last deadline but hasn’t technically extended it since. However, on April 5, in an expletive-laden Truth Social post, Trump gave a precise deadline for Iran — Tuesday, 8 p.m. EDT.
As the world and its markets hold their breath, mediators are still conducting discussions in hopes of finding a breakthrough before the deadline ends Tuesday night. Trump sounded almost optimistic about the negotiations ending in a ceasefire — almost.
“There is a good chance [they make a deal], but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there,” he said.
Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
