What’s at stake in Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to open Strait of Hormuz
Iran has until the end of the week to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, before the U.S. will launch attacks on the country’s power plants President Donald Trump said Monday. That escalation could trigger retaliatory attacks on power plants and water desalination facilities in the region, and could even raise the risk of a cyberattack in the U.S.
On Saturday afternoon, Trump said Iran had 48 hours to open the strait, a critical economic chokepoint through which 20% of global oil supplies typically flow. On Monday, Trump eased the deadline, giving the Iranian regime until Friday to open shipping lanes.
“I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions,” Trump posted to social media on Monday.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned that the energy crisis now is worse than during the 1970s, when measuring how many barrels of oil per day have been removed from the global market. In the ‘70s, oil prices nearly quadrupled leading to fuel rationing, lines around the block to buy gas and the birth of fuel-efficiency measures.
“The single most important solution to this problem is opening up the Hormuz Strait,” Birol said at an event with the National Press Club of Australia.
The apparent ultimatum to Iran — to open the Strait of Hormuz or else the U.S. will attack the country’s power grid — makes this week a potential turning point as the war nears its one-month mark. The near-total closure of the strait has already caused U.S. gasoline prices to surge by more than $1 over the past month, according to AAA. However, Iran has said it will retaliate against any attacks on its power plants.
Why water supplies could be at risk
Iran’s army responded to the Trump administration by threatening to strike energy and water desalination infrastructure across the region.
An Iranian state-affiliated news agency circulated a graphic showing power plants in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait that could be targeted in retaliation for a U.S. attack on Iranian plants, Al Jazeera reported.
If Iran retaliates, “a large-scale electricity disruption becomes a water disruption,” said Gabriel Collins, a research fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. The arid region relies heavily on seawater desalination.
Desalination turns saltwater into drinking water. That process typically requires hundreds of megawatts of power, and desalination facilities are often located alongside power plants.
The six Gulf states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — operate more than 400 desalination plants. And Iran has already shown willingness to target its neighbors who cooperate with the U.S. and host its military bases. Iran may be more resilient because it has more robust groundwater supplies, which rely on pumps that can be powered by diesel generators if electricity is cut off.
Attacks on water supplies create “enormous humanitarian consequences,” Colling told Straight Arrow News. “You could create really, really profound disruptions and a lot of human suffering.”
The risk of a cyber attack
Any escalation to direct attacks on power generation and water infrastructure also raises the spectre of cyberattacks in the U.S. — something Iran-affiliated groups have attempted in the past: In 2023, an Iranian group targeted a municipal water system in Aliquippa, Pennsylvania, because the system used Israeli software.
“You have so many water systems all over the country,” Collins said. “There’s varying degrees of vulnerability.”
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), a division of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security tasked with safeguarding America’s infrastructure against cyber attacks, is currently affected by the partial government shutdown. Two-thirds of cybersecurity staff are furloughed, according to reporting by S&P Global. The publication also noted an uptick in attempted cyberattacks since the first U.S.-Israeli strike against Iran on Feb. 28.
CISA continues to operate a 24-hour operations center and respond to imminent threats, but it has halted proactive work, according to officials cited by S&P Global.
The partial shutdown comes after more than a third of CISA’s workforce was either laid off or took buyouts last year.
“We were already under capacity relative to the threats that we face,” Collins said. “What’s happened over the last 15 months has only exacerbated that.”
Collins added that the exact level of risk is difficult to determine, but it’s safe to assume that U.S. infrastructure — both water and power systems — have some vulnerabilities, and it’s not worth putting those to a “live test.” Cybersecurity is a crucial need at this particular moment, he told SAN.
“The appropriate direction is one where you invest in this as an insurance policy for the security of all Americans,” Collins said.
Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
