What happens if US takes Greenland by force? ‘NATO dies,’ Danish defense expert says
The diplomatic ice is thickening over Greenland as Denmark and its European allies launch a major show of military force. An exercise called Operation Arctic Endurance is officially underway with French, Swedish and German forces joining the Danes to signal a united front against talk of a U.S. takeover.
This move follows a high-level deadlock in Washington. Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers met with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio but walked away with what they called a “fundamental disagreement” over the island’s future.
Despite the deadlock, the leaders agreed to establish a working group to address U.S. security concerns while respecting Denmark’s “red lines.”
Nevertheless, President Donald Trump continues to insist that the U.S. must take control of Greenland “the easy way,” through a purchase, or the “hard way,” through military action.
“If we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland,” he said on Jan. 9.
But the Danes aren’t buying it. They say there hasn’t been a Chinese warship in the area for a decade.
And the potential consequences are high if Trump follows through on his threats.
One expert on Nordic defense and coercive diplomacy, Dr. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, told Straight Arrow News that if the U.S. moves from talk to an actual annexation, “NATO dies.”
“If the U.S. were to attack an ally and take over part of its territory,” Jakobsen said, “it would be doing exactly the same as Russia did when it attacked Ukraine in 2022.”
Why Greenland’s status is testing NATO allies
Greenland is a semiautonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, which retains responsibility for its defense and foreign policy even though the United States operates a military base there under a 1951 defense agreement. Trump has repeatedly insisted the U.S. must “own” Greenland for national security reasons and has urged NATO to support U.S. control of the island.
Jakobsen, an associate professor of strategy and war studies at the Royal Danish Defence College, told SAN that any U.S. move to annex Greenland by force would mean the end of NATO, the mutual defense alliance created by the U.S. and European nations in 1949 following World War II.
European allies would stop trusting Washington’s security guarantees and start planning their defense “on the assumption that the United States is no longer part of NATO,” Jakobsen said by email.
“This also means that all European orders for weaponry in the U.S. will be canceled as the Europeans will need to establish security of supply and the U.S. will consequently lose billions of dollars in exports,” Jakobsen added.
What Denmark, Greenland and Trump are saying
In Washington on Wednesday, Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, described talks with Vance and Rubio as “frank but also constructive,” adding that Denmark and Greenland reject the Trump administration’s efforts to control Greenland.
“Ideas that would not respect the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark and the right of self-determination of the Greenlandic people are totally unacceptable,” Rasmussen said.
Greenland’s foreign minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, added that while Greenland was open to stronger security cooperation with the United States, “that path does not include ownership.”
Trump has argued on social media that NATO should support a U.S. takeover and warned that “anything less” would leave Greenland exposed to China or Russia.
Rasmussen countered that “according to our intelligence, we haven’t had a Chinese warship in Greenland for a decade or so.” He added that “there is not an instant threat from China or Russia that we cannot accommodate.”
Jakobsen echoed that view to SAN.
“There are no Russian and Chinese ships in the proximity of Greenland and China does not have the capacity to operate warships and submarines in the Arctic Ocean,” he said, “so why the need to own Greenland now?”
He argued that the only military threat to Greenland is “the one posed by the United States,” noting that the Pentagon has not increased the American presence at the Pituffik Space Base on Greenland’s northwest coast in two decades.
“The U.S. military has not added a single soldier or dog sledge, to paraphrase Trump, in the last 20 years,” Jakobsen said. “Why? Because there is no military threat to Greenland. The U.S. has reopened its air base on Iceland and increased its presence and activities around Norway, but done nothing on Greenland.”
How Europe is signaling in Greenland
According to Time, Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark’s defense minister, said that Denmark would increase military activity in and around Greenland. Several European allies are joining those efforts.
Sweden’s prime minister said Swedish officers arrived in Greenland to prepare for activities connected to Operation Arctic Endurance, while Norway said it would send personnel to explore further cooperation. Germany’s Defense Ministry said it was deploying a 13-person reconnaissance team to Greenland to assess possible contributions to maritime surveillance and regional security.
French President Emmanuel Macron wrote on X that “at the request of Denmark,” France would take part in Operation Arctic Endurance and that “the first French military elements are already on their way,” with more to follow.
Denmark’s ‘two signals’ to Washington
According to Jakobsen, these coordinated deployments for Operation Arctic Endurance are designed to send “two signals” to the Trump administration:
“One, it’s increasing the cost of a U.S. invasion by forcing the U.S. to confront military personnel from several European countries,” he said. “It is trying to signal to the U.S. that an attack will result in high political, economic and reputational costs and kill NATO.
“Two, it is a signal that they are willing to address any security concerns that the U.S. has about the security of Greenland. If the U.S. wants a greater military presence to deter China and Russia, the alliance is willing to provide it to keep Trump happy,” Jakobsen added.
What’s next for US–European talks on Greenland
After their White House meeting, Denmark and Greenland agreed with U.S. officials to establish a high-level working group to explore ways to address Trump’s stated security concerns.
“The group, in our view, should focus on how to address the American security concerns, while at the same time respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Rasmussen said.
Jakobsen said it remains unclear what additional U.S. security requests might follow, because Washington has “not made specific requests” and already has “full access to Greenland,” with permission “to build all the military bases that they want.”
He contends that the United States did not need to “own” Greenland during the Cold War, when the Soviet threat was greater than current Russian or Chinese capabilities in the Arctic.
The question, he said, is why that would change now.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
