Polymarket moves mainstream as investigations end, Wall Street buys in
Polymarket is leaping from the crypto niche to Wall Street after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest $2 billion for up to a 25% stake, according to Forbes and CBS News. The company’s founder, Shayne Coplan, touts superior accuracy as regulators and critics debate whether Polymarket is a research tool or deregulated gambling.
According to CBS News, Polymarket hosts about 10,000 active questions across roughly 15 topics, ranging from finance to culture. Coplan describes it as a venue to “bet on current events.” For example, users have bet on who would win the Super Bowl and on whether Taylor Swift would get married.
Users take yes-or-no positions, and the odds update in real time as wagers come in and news breaks, effectively creating a crowd-sourced probability for each outcome.
How do the markets work in practice?
Traders buy and sell shares that can be cashed out before resolution, which Coplan likens to a stock, though it is not a stock and is not overseen by securities regulators.
Odds can move in real time; a market on whether Joe Biden would drop out of the 2024 presidential race spiked during a debate against Donald Trump as public perception shifted, according to CBS. Coplan argues this “wisdom of crowds” can cut through noise.
“It’s the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now, until someone else creates some sort of a super crystal ball,” Coplan told CBS.
Who backs Polymarket, and what will they do with the data?
According to Forbes, the platform is now valued at $9 billion following a significant deal with Intercontinental Exchange. Intercontinental invested $2 billion for a stake of up to 25% and plans to integrate Polymarket’s data into products for institutional clients. Other major players are also signing on: Both Google Finance and Yahoo Finance will display the site’s data, according to Forbes.
At the same time, CBS News notes that Donald Trump Jr. has joined the advisory board after his fund invested roughly $10 million.
What do critics and regulators say?
Regulatory hurdles remain a key part of the story. In 2022, the company paid a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and agreed to block U.S. users to settle allegations that it operated without registration.
However, Forbes reports that after federal probes were dropped in July, Polymarket acquired a licensed exchange to pave the way for a legal U.S. launch. Critics like Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets warn this new landscape creates a “loophole” for “unregulated gambling,” telling Forbes the deregulation could “end badly.”
Is this research or gambling?
Users told CBS they treat wagers like investments, doing deep research to gain an edge. Coplan says the site rewards people who dig into geopolitics or macroeconomics and contends that curation and ethics rules draw lines around sensitive markets. But the model is still unproven as a business: Polymarket has not turned a profit and does not yet charge trading fees.
With Intercontinental Exchange’s stake and a licensed platform in hand, Polymarket is positioning for a U.S. rollout and broader institutional use of its data, Forbes reported. Coplan says “tens of millions” have already checked the odds. His goal, he says, is to reach a billion people.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
