GOP House majority would shrink further with upset loss in Tennessee election
Republicans are in danger of losing what’s considered a safe congressional seat next week. Polling suggests a Tennessee district up for grabs that President Donald Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024 is now neck-and-neck.
Voters will elect the replacement for former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., on Tuesday, Dec. 2. Early voting ended Wednesday.
Polling indicates tight race
According to an Emerson College poll, 48% of voters say they’ll vote for Republican Matt Van Epps, and 46% support Democrat Aftyn Behn. The results are within the margin of error, and 5% are still undecided.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Emerson College polling director Spencer Kimball said.
Trump’s change in fortunes
This poll is surprising, and if accurate, would be troubling news for Republicans.
Both Trump and Green, who resigned, won this district by more than 20 percentage points just a year ago.
Now, the president’s approval rating among voters in that district is underwater – 47% approval to 49% disapproval.
“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November,” Kimball said. “The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve.”
House of Representatives balance of power
Losing this seat would have a big impact on the balance of power.
There would be 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats. So, to pass legislation on party lines, Republicans could lose only two votes. If Republicans keep the seat and go to 220 members, they’ll be able to lose three.
With Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., resigning on Jan. 5, Republicans will lose another seat until it’s filled.
Meanwhile, Democrats have two vacant seats in safe districts that remain unfilled. There will be a special election in Texas on Jan. 31 and another in New Jersey on April 16.
A Democratic sweep could bring the House balance of power to 218-216, meaning Republicans wouldn’t be able to lose a single vote to pass any bill on their own.
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Ella Rae Greene, Editor In Chief
